Nursing Workforce Rebound? See What the Surveys Show

• While projections show an overall shortage of 100,000 healthcare workers, other reports indicate the nursing workforce is stabilizing. 
• The Mercer analysis that projected the overall shortage also indicated that nurse practitioner shortages are expected in every state while there should be a registered nurse surplus across most of the United States. 
• As the nursing workforce stabilizes, health systems will need to focus on providing support for less-experienced nurses. 

While projections show an overall shortage of 100,000 healthcare workers, there are some indications that the nursing industry is stabilizing.

Anecdotal evidence from some hospitals and universities supports the industry and labor market data.

“We’re in an upward trend,” David Bertoty, University of Pittsburg Medical Center (UPMC) Somerset’s chief nursing officer, told a local news outlet, “and I see that continuing as we have the good relationships with the schools. … I think from a staffing perspective, we’re not there yet, but we’re a lot closer to there than we were even six months ago.” 

Pre-2020 Growth Patterns?

A Mercer analysis projected a shortage of 100,000 healthcare workers by 2028. When focused on nurse practitioners alone, shortages were expected in every state, with the largest in California (nearly 3,000), followed by New York, Texas, and Georgia.

“Prolonged inflation in healthcare costs, combined with these critical labor shortages, could present an existential threat to some healthcare systems,” William Self, a partner and Mercer’s Global Workforce Strategy and Analytics leaders, stated in a news release. “The inability to attract the right healthcare labor will make operating in certain locations much more difficult and increase health equity gaps, like those between rural and urban populations.”

The Minnesota Hospital Association’s (MHA) annual workforce report shows the state is “replenishing” staff in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, though higher numbers aren’t evident in the state’s rural areas. 

 MHA President and CEO Rahul Koranne told Fergus Now that vacancy rates outside of the metro area “nearly three full percentage points higher than in the Twin Cities.” 

The healthcare industry as a whole added 31,000 jobs in August — the lowest growth since January 2022 — “indicating a return to pre-pandemic job growth patterns,” according to an analysis from The Real Economy Blog. 

Upward Trends in Nursing Students, RN Staffing

The Mercer report also projected a registered nurse (RN) surplus across most of the United States. Texas is expected to see a surplus of nearly 8,000 RNs, followed by a surplus of roughly 5,500 in California. Only 13 states are projected to have an RN shortage.  

In keeping with the data, the University of Connecticut School of Nursing’s Class of 2028 is its largest to date, with 219 students accepted from more than 3,800 applicants. 

Hospitals and nursing schools in Pennsylvania also have seen positive indications in their graduating and incoming classes and decreases in staff turnover. The (Pennsylvania) Tribute-Democrat reported in late August that the data suggests a “rebound of interest” in nursing. 

“Through the pandemic, there were incredible challenges,” Bertoty said. “Some would say historic challenges. People left the profession. People took time off. Many very talented nurses took the opportunity to travel and get into travel nursing. I think we’ve turned the corner where the pandemic is behind us. We’ve refreshed things.”

Earlier this month, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis touted his state’s “success in enhancing the nursing talent pipeline” through state programs. He approved $130 million in the Focus on Florida’s Future budget for the programs, according to a news release. 

Prearing for Nursing Workforce Stabilization

One hospital leader in New Jersey told Becker’s Hospital Review she believes there’s a move toward “stabilization” in nursing, but health systems need to ensure there’s support for younger nurses entering the profession. 

“It’s not just you’re hiring a nurse for today, but understanding that growth is going to be the expectation, and do we have those supports and resources in place for nurses to grow so that we can retain them in this environment, in whatever specialty or area of practice they move into,” said Marie Foley-Danecker, DNP, RN, vice president and chief nursing officer at Hackensack Meridian Health Ocean University Medical Center.  

Earlier this year, Nursing CE Central discussed the nursing industry’s trend toward younger practitioners and how some retired nurses would consider returning to the workforce in a mentorship capacity. At the time, surveys indicated that early-career nurses sought out environments where they could learn from more tenured practitioners. 

The Bottom Line

If you are a resident of the U.S., you have the right to bodily autonomy and in most cases, there are various employment opportunities that do not require any proof of vaccination.  

We strongly recommend that you do not seek, produce, or distribute fake vaccine cards – it is not only a danger to those around you, but it could cost you your career and so much more.  

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